June 2026 set to be fifth driest-ever since 1901; monsoon advance over parts of north likely in early July
GS1History · Society · Geography· Geophysical phenomena (earthquakes, cyclones, volcanoes)· Prelims·
Why in news
The IMD predicted a 92% rainfall probability for June 2026, which is projected to be the fifth driest June since 1901 due to a lack of low-pressure systems.
Background
The IMD reported less than 4 mm of rainfall in the first week of June 2026. The deficit is attributed to a lack of cyclones and low-pressure systems in the North Indian Ocean Basin during late May and June 2026.
Facts for Prelims
- FactJune 2026 is projected to be the fifth driest month since 1901.
- S&TEl Nino is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
- BodyIMD (India Meteorological Department) is the national agency responsible for meteorological observations and forecasting.
- PlaceNorth Indian Ocean Basin is the primary source of moisture for the Indian Summer Monsoon.
For Mains
Q. Analyze how the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the lack of North Indian Ocean cyclonic activity impact India's agricultural stability and water security.
Dimensions to cover in your answer
- Hydrological stress: Reduced moisture influx from the North Indian Ocean Basin affecting monsoon momentum.
- Agricultural vulnerability: Impact of sub-normal rainfall on Kharif crop sowing and irrigation-dependent yields.
- Climate variability: Increasing frequency of extreme dry spells due to shifting ENSO patterns.
Keywords: Monsoon dynamics · El Nino · Hydrological stress · Climate variability · Meteorological forecasting
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