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VOL. I · EST. 11.2025 
SatyaDheesh
सत्याधीश
India's Ground Truth Record
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Oil prices breach $115 per barrel following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia

GS3Economy · S&T · Environment · Security· Growth, inflation & macro indicators· Prelims·

Geopolitical risk and its impact on energy security and inflation: a GS3 and Economy case study.

Why in news

Oil prices breached $115 per barrel on October 22, 2026, following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, causing India's oil basket to exceed RBI projections.

Background

On October 23, 2026, Brent crude reached $115.14 and WTI reached $101.26 per barrel. India's oil basket averaged $119.99, while Adani Total Gas raised CNG prices by ₹4.45 per kg due to LNG costs rising to $30 per MMBtu.

Facts for Prelims

  • FactBrent crude price reached $115.14 on October 23, 2026
  • FactWTI crude price reached $101.26 on October 23, 2026
  • FactIndia's oil basket average was $119.99 per barrel
  • FactLNG costs rose from $10-12 to $30 per MMBtu
  • BodyReserve Bank of India (RBI) provided the $95 per barrel projection

Prelims practice question

What was the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projection for oil prices mentioned in the report?

  1. (a)$110 per barrel
  2. (b)$120 per barrel
  3. (c)$95 per barrel
  4. (d)$100 per barrel
Show answer

Answer: (c) $95 per barrel — The RBI provided a projection of $95 per barrel, which was exceeded by India's oil basket.

For Mains

Q. Analyze the impact of geopolitical instability in the Middle East on India's energy security and fiscal stability.

Dimensions to cover in your answer

  • External shock vulnerability: High sensitivity of domestic fuel prices to Middle Eastern maritime security
  • Fiscal pressure: Inflationary pressure on the fiscal deficit due to higher crude import costs
  • Supply chain volatility: Rapid escalation of LNG costs impacting domestic CNG pricing structures

Keywords: Energy Security · Geopolitical Risk · Import Inflation · Fiscal Deficit · Supply Chain Volatility

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