WMO forecasts strongest El Nino since 1950 as southwest monsoon records 759.4 mm rain
GS3Economy · S&T · Environment · Security· Climate change & international agreements· Prelims + Mains·
Climate variability and ENSO dynamics: a key GS3 topic for agriculture and disaster management.
Why in news
The WMO and IMD reported that the 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% deficit due to the strongest El Nino event since 1950.
Background
The southwest monsoon recorded 759.4 mm of rain against a normal of 868.6 mm. The WMO forecasts the El Nino event will peak in December 2026, characterized by warming sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Facts for Prelims
- Fact2026 southwest monsoon rainfall: 759.4 mm (12.6% below normal).
- S&TEl Nino: A phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characterized by warming sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
- S&TLa Nina: The opposite phase of ENSO, typically resulting in a cooling effect.
- PlaceNortheast monsoon: Affects parts of south India including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala from October to December.
- BodyIMD: India Meteorological Department responsible for monsoon withdrawal announcements.
Prelims practice question
With reference to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), consider the following statements:
- El Nino is characterized by warming sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
- The 2026 southwest monsoon recorded a rainfall of 868.6 mm, which was above normal.
- La Nina is the opposite phase of ENSO and typically results in a cooling effect.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- (a)1 only
- (b)1 and 2 only
- (c)1 and 3 only
- (d)2 and 3 only
Show answer
Answer: (c) 1 and 3 only — Statements 1 and 3 are correct. Statement 2 is incorrect: The monsoon recorded 759.4 mm, which was a 12.6% deficit.
For Mains
Q. Analyze the impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on India's monsoon patterns and its subsequent implications for agricultural stability.
Dimensions to cover in your answer
- Agricultural vulnerability: Rainfall deficits during the southwest monsoon directly impact the kharif crop cycle and food security.
- Climate feedback loops: The warming effect of El Nino on global temperatures exacerbating erratic monsoon behavior.
- Economic repercussions: Monsoon variability affecting water availability for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation.
Keywords: El Nino Southern Oscillation · Monsoon dynamics · Climate variability · Kharif cycle · Meteorological forecasting
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This note is generated automatically from SatyaDheesh's news feed and mapped to the UPSC CSE syllabus. Check facts against the original report or PIB before using them in an answer.