El Niño Surges: India Faces 40% Monsoon Deficit, Crop Crisis
GS3Economy · S&T · Environment · Security· Climate change & international agreements· Prelims + Mains·
Why in news
NOAA confirmed rapid El Niño intensification, leading to a 40% monsoon deficit in India during June, threatening rice crop production.
Background
NOAA predicts a peak Nino 3.4 anomaly of 3.6 degrees Celsius by late 2026. India's southwest monsoon rainfall deficit reached nearly 40% below average in June, exacerbated by a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole status.
Facts for Prelims
- S&TNino 3.4 anomaly: A key metric for El Niño monitoring measuring sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific.
- FactIndia's southwest monsoon rainfall deficit reached nearly 40% below average in June.
- S&TIndian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A climate phenomenon involving the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean.
- S&TEl Niño: Characterized by the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, often leading to erratic monsoon patterns in India.
For Mains
Q. Analyze how the increasing frequency and intensity of El Niño events pose a systemic threat to India's food security and agrarian economy.
Dimensions to cover in your answer
- Climate vulnerability: High dependence on monsoon-fed irrigation for rice cultivation in the Indo-Gangetic plains.
- Meteorological complexity: Interaction between El Niño and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) status complicating rainfall predictability.
- Agricultural risk: Significant disruption to sowing cycles and yield stability due to erratic precipitation patterns.
Keywords: Climate Resilience · Food Security · Monsoon Variability · Agrarian Economy · Meteorological Anomalies
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