In 1997, India's ocean saved the monsoon from El Nino. This year, it won't
GS3Economy · S&T · Environment · Security· Cropping patterns & irrigation· Prelims + Mains·
Why in news
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) lowered its monsoon forecast for 2026 due to a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the potential impact of El Nino.
Background
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a natural temperature imbalance in the Indian Ocean that typically aids the monsoon. In 2026, the IOD is flat and neutral, leaving the monsoon vulnerable to El Nino, a warming of the Pacific Ocean.
Facts for Prelims
- S&TIndian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A natural temperature imbalance in the Indian Ocean that pushes moisture-laden winds toward the subcontinent.
- S&TEl Nino: A warming of the Pacific Ocean that disrupts normal weather patterns and can lead to below-average monsoon rainfall in India.
- FactIMD forecast: The 2026 monsoon season is predicted to be significantly below average.
For Mains
Q. Discuss how climatic phenomena like El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole influence India's agricultural stability and food security.
Dimensions to cover in your answer
- Agricultural vulnerability: Reduced monsoon rainfall leading to lower crop yields and volatile food prices
- Meteorological monitoring: Need for advanced early warning systems to mitigate climate-induced economic shocks
Keywords: Climate Variability · Monsoon Dynamics · Food Security · Meteorological Forecasting
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