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VOL. I · EST. 11.2025 
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"Super El Nino" and Western Disturbance collide to cause heavy Delhi-NCR rain

GS1History · Society · Geography· Geophysical phenomena (earthquakes, cyclones, volcanoes)· Prelims·

Climate variability and atmospheric circulation: a GS1 Geography and disaster management case study.

Why in news

Professor Gufran Beig attributed heavy unseasonal rain in Delhi-NCR to the collision of a 'Super El Nino' and an active Western Disturbance with hot air.

Background

The Pacific Ocean warmed by 3.2 degrees Celsius, potentially reaching 3.5 degrees Celsius. The IMD reported 12–20 cm rainfall in Jammu and Kashmir and 7–11 cm in Haryana on 12 October.

Facts for Prelims

  • FactPacific Ocean temperature increase: 3.2 degrees Celsius (potential 3.5 degrees Celsius).
  • PlaceJammu and Kashmir rainfall: 12–20 cm reported by IMD.
  • PlaceHaryana rainfall: 7–11 cm reported by IMD.
  • S&TSuper El Nino: A supercharged event causing a monsoon rainfall deficit of around 13 per cent.
  • S&TWestern Disturbance: Cold clouds colliding with hot, humid air over Delhi-NCR plains.

Prelims practice question

What is the estimated monsoon rainfall deficit caused by a Super El Nino event?

  1. (a)5 per cent
  2. (b)20 per cent
  3. (c)30 per cent
  4. (d)13 per cent
Show answer

Answer: (d) 13 per cent — A Super El Nino is a supercharged event causing a monsoon rainfall deficit of around 13 per cent.

For Mains

Q. Discuss how extreme climatic phenomena like 'Super El Nino' and Western Disturbances are altering traditional monsoon patterns and posing risks to agricultural stability in North India.

Dimensions to cover in your answer

  • Atmospheric dynamics: Interaction between Western Disturbances and hot, humid air masses causing unseasonal precipitation.
  • Climate variability: Impact of Pacific Ocean warming on monsoon rainfall deficits and winter temperature fluctuations.

Keywords: Super El Nino · Western Disturbance · Climate Variability · Monsoon Withdrawal · Atmospheric Circulation

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