West Asia conflict poses downside risk, India GDP growth seen at 7.1 pc in FY27: Crisil Intelligence

Crisil Intelligence predicts India's real GDP growth will moderate to 7.1% in FY27, still healthy and slightly above potential, driven by robust private consumption and a mild pick-up in private investment. The report expects export growth to maintain momentum due to lower US tariffs and steady global growth, while retail inflation is projected to rise to 4.3% on average from 2.5% in FY26, normalizing from current lows. The RBI is expected to maintain policy rates steady in FY27 as it continues to transmit the 125 bps rate cut implemented in calendar year 2025 and remains proactive on liquidity management. Financial conditions are projected to remain resilient in fiscal 2027.